Three windows, and you are in the first

The Office drew three windows, and this number is published in the last of the first. From August through October the instruction was to book late: a standard room, a flexible or refundable rate, the price checked again after you hold it, the public rate compared with the one that includes a fourth night or a credit. Early fixation was how you overpaid. Airline schedules and the insurance were part of the booking, because the risk was never the linen. It was whether the trip could still be taken.

November to the middle of December is the second window. If the recovery that the trade press was already describing in July continues, the promotions come off. Six to twelve weeks is the horizon for an ordinary room. Beach hotels, connecting rooms and suites want longer than that. You may still move the date. You should not expect the August perk. The third window, the twentieth of December to the fifth of January, is not a sale of the city. It is a sale of what was always scarce: beachfront villas, two- and three-bedroom suites, a view of the tower, the rare categories at Atlantis The Royal, the top of Jumeirah, the small ultra-luxury houses. Do not expect every five-star room in a city of fifty-six thousand of them to vanish. Do expect the one you actually wanted to have vanished in the spring.

The condition on all three is the same. You must be able to cancel or move. Autumn was never an ordinary high season. It depends on airspace, on which airlines came back, and on whether the trip still feels possible — not on whether the beach is good. The beach was never the variable.